The Minnesota Twins... the team the Royals COULD be

Watching the Twins beat the Tigers to win the Central on Tuesday was not only exciting, but also made me think of what the Royals could be. The Twins are not one of those high-dollar, big spending teams like the Yankees or Sox, yet they are consistent winners. Tuesday marked their 5th Central title in the past 8 years. On top of that, they played in a one game playoff last year to almost win the Central. They are certainly the best run team in the division over the last decade.



It's easy to forget that the Twins were in a similar boat as the Royals for much of the 90's. From 1993 to 2000, the Twins averaged 66 wins per season and finished last or 2nd to last in the division all but 1 year. However, they used that time to build up their farm system. They drafted well, and invested in young players, and it has paid of dividends. They have finished no worse than 3rd since 2001 and won the afore mentioned 5 division titles.

The Royals should look long and hard at what the Twins have done over the last 10 to 12 seasons. It's a blueprint for how smaller market teams CAN win. Seeing the Twins lets me know that it's not OK to use the small market excuse. It can be done.

Come on Royals.

Greinke goes for another win...

Zack takes the hill again this afternoon with a shot to get win number 16. This is significant, because no one has ever won the Cy Young with less than 16 wins. While I think wins is not a very good stat to judge how good a pitcher is, a lot of a voters put some weight on it. Also significant is that if Greinke throws 9 more scoreless innings, his ERA will drop to 1.99. It would be really tough to vote for anyone else if Greinke's ERA was that good.

Greinke now leads the Cy Young Predictor

The Bill James Cy Young predictor has correctly picked the Cy Young winner 8 of the last 12 years in the AL. In 3 of the other 4, the winner picked by the predictor finished 2nd. After six more innings of scoreless ball on Tuesday, Greinke took the AL league in the predictor. Let's be honest, if Zack doesn't win, the whole voting process is a joke. But more on that in a future post. For now, check out the predictor.

Aaron Crow signs!

Yesterday, Aaron Crow officially signed with the Royals ending a year and a half hold out from MLB. I'll keep my thoughts on this brief, but I think this was crucial for the Royals. Crow signed for 3 years, $4.5 million. While that might seem like a lot for a guy who has never pitched in the bigs, it could end up being a big value based on Crow's potential. The Royals desperately need him in the bigs, and they need him now.

The thing about front office strategy is 2009 is that Moneyball is more or less dead. It's not the concept of Moneyball, valuing things other don't, that is dead. That is still important. I mean the actualy things in Moneyball such as OBP that you used to be able to get on the cheap that are dead. When the A's were winning early in the decade, it's because they valued OBP and could get it cheap because no one else did. But the cat's out of the bag. Now everyone knows OBP is important. The next "Moneyball" idea is not yet out there.

So for now, smaller market teams have to take risks on unproven players, and hope they hit big. They can't compete for big name free agents. As Royals fans, we need to hope Crow is as good as advirtised and that he gets to the bigs soon. Sitting out a year is definitely concerning. Hopefully it's not a big deal.

On a side note, I was thrilled that the Royals went for the Mizzou guy. I've seen Crow pitch live more than once, and he was dominate in college. Let's hope that translates to the bigs.

Another win...

It's now 7 of the last 8. If anyone can tell me where Robinson Tejeda came from, I would appreciate it. And by that I mean I know he's been on the team all year, but why is he all of a sudden good?

And that's what we call a winning streak. It has happened before.

Don't look now, but the Royals have won 6 of their last 7 games. For the moment, we will ignore the fact that they were still mathematically eliminated from the playoffs during this streak anyways. Something about September has seemed to bring the best out in the Royals the last two years. Unfortunately, it has been too little, too late. But lets look at the last 7 game stretch a little closer to see what the team has been doing differently.

David Dejesus slides into home to help the Royals get their 6th win in the last 7 games

In the last 7 games, we have averaged 5.71 runs per game, compared to their 4.10 runs per game on the season as a whole. How significant is this extra 1.6 runs per game? The Yankees, the highest scoring team in baseball, averages 5.75 runs per game. I should mention that the Yanks currently have the best record too. It's easy to say "score more runs though." Have the Royals done anything else different during the last 7?

The easy answer is we have been hitting better, with splits of .303/.374/.442 over the last 7 (BA/OBP/SLG). This is much better than the .257/.315/.404 clip the team has hit over the course of the season. But is this sustainable? I would say yes and no. Part of the higher OBP has been due to better plate discipline. Our team walk % has been 10.0% over the past 7 games, as opposed to 7.4% on the season. However, this walking spike seems a little bit strange for a couple reasons. First of all, the Royals have actually been worse at swinging at balls outside of the zone over the last 7 (30.3% compared to 27.5% for the full season). The first strike percentage has been nearly equal what we have been seeing over the course of the season. So basically, the increased number of walks doesn't have a whole lot to do with better plate discipline as a team.

Billy Butler has hit .419/.441/.774 over the last 7 games

So what else can we attribute this increase in output to? Lets try luck. The Royals batting average for balls in play (BABIP) over the last 7 games has been .361. This is completely unsustainable. This compares to .297 for the season. The current league leader in this stat is at .319. This is a very significant stat to those who study advanced stats. Basically, over the course of a season, you can expect all luck on where balls fall to basically even out. Since the place where a ball lands in relation to fielders can be considered random, an unusually high BABIP over a short period of time suggests that you've gotten lucky.

As much as I'd like to believe we've turned a corner with our hitting, it may just be blind luck.

But hitting hasn't been the only reason we've been winning. We have seen some really good pitching performances as of late too. Especially by Zack Greinke, Robinson Tejeda and Kyle Davies. I will look into the pitching side more later this week.

I think Miguel Olivo just swung at another bad pitch.

A few days ago, I mentioned how the Royals don't appreciate the power of on-base percentage and used Miguel Olivo as one of my examples of how bad they are. I knew 110 Ks and 10 BBs was terrible. But the below article on Fangraphs illustrates just how historically bad is plate discipline is.

Olivo is possibly the worst free swinger of all time.

Good Call, Trey. Wait...I mean good call, John.

One of the most vital roles a manager plays during the game is how to manage his bullpen. Putting in specific pitchers in different situations is vital for success. In my opinion, this is one of Trey Hillman's biggest weaknesses. Specifically, I'm referring to his reluctance to use Joakim Soria, our best reliever, outside of the 9th inning.

This is a part of modern baseball wisdom that most sabermatricians disagree with. For some reason, managers in today's game will not bring out their closer if it is not the 9th inning. In reality, you should use your best reliever whenever the situation dictates. When you need a critical out in the 7th or 8th, why keep your best guy in your pocket?

To totally illustrate my point, I'd like to point to the series the Royals played against the Rays from July 17th to July 19th, shortly after I started my boycott. The Royals led each of the 3 games in the series going into the 8th inning. However, in each of the games, they blew the lead in the 8th. And, in each game, they did not bring in Soria to try to hold the lead in the 8th. So we blew every game that weekend without using our best reliever at all. He was then brought in 3 days later against the Angels late in a 10-2 blowout loss. The point is, since we blew the lead in the 8th, there was no lead for Soria to hold in the 9th. Put him in the game in the 8th, and maybe we win one or more of those games.


So I was shocked last night when I saw the Royals bring in Soria in the 8th inning last night holding a 4-2 lead with 2 runners on and 0 outs. I immediately thought, "Maybe Trey finally gets it." Then I remembered, Trey Hillman was not managing the team last night. He was away from the team with a family matter. Bench Coach John Gibbons was the man who made the call. Soria came in the game, and while he did allow 1 inherited runner to score, he got us out of the 8th with a lead. We won the game 4-3. But the point is not even that we won. It is that Gibbons made the correct strategic move and put in the pitcher that gave us the best chance to win in that situation. Big props.

I hope Trey Hillman will learn something from John Gibbons in managing this type of situation. Don't waste your closer by keeping him on your bench if he can get you a win.

What exactly does a boycott entail?

That's the real question. What do I mean by boycott. Here are the rules I've come up with so far, but I'd be willing to listen to any more suggestions:

-- I won't go to any games
-- I will watch the team on TV
-- I won't buy any Royals gear (shirts, hats, ect.)
-- I won't wear the gear I currently have
-- I will go to tailgate, if I want to
-- I won't pay for parking to tailgate (I will park across the street and walk over)
-- I will listen to critiques on the team
-- I will continue to read about the team, and watch the moves they make
-- I will comment on what I see the team do
-- I won't believe banter from the front office that is not backed up by action

Basically, the boycott entails cutting off any revenue I might produce for the Royals. Anything where I directly give the Royals money is off limits. I realize, that in a round about way, watching a game on TV helps produce revenue. However, this is necessary if I am to give the team a fair shake to show me they have changed their losing ways.

But like I said before, it's not the losing that really that cause the boycott. It is the terrible management by the front office. So what I really need is to come up with metrics for when to end the boycott.

The first, in my opinion, would be for the Royals to show that they actually understand the concept of on base percentage. This stat, above all others, is the most closely linked to run production. Now I'm aware it doesn't come as cheap as it did back when Moneyball first came out, but having a lineup that includes Guillen, Jacobs, Olivo and Betancourt shows that they Royals are completely ignoring the impact of OBP.

Miguel Olivo has 110 K's this year and only 10 walks

Second, the Royals have to show me they know what they are doing in the draft. It's only been 3 years, but picking Hochaver number 1 overall already looks terrible. As does taking Gordon number 2 overall in 2005 (although I have to admit everyone liked this pick at the time). Then in 2007 and 2008, we took players who are no where near big league ready, so it's hard to judge. Since 1988, the Royals only have 1 player taken in the first round who could be considered a great pick out of our 26 1st round picks. That player is Zack Greinke (2002), who is obviously amazing (and should win the Cy Young--but that's another post). Billy Butler (2004) does look like he's finally getting a hang of things, and could be considered a good pick as well soon. This year's pick, Aaron Crow, looks like he may not even sign.

Colt Griffin (2001 1st round pick) never made it to the majors

But I'm looking for more than just these two metrics. I'm just not sure what solid metrics to put with this. If you have any suggestions, let me know.

The Last Straw...

"We got the opportunity to build on the success Allard Baird had, and the next person who gets this challenge and opportunity hopefully can build on the success we've had."

-- Dayton Moore

I think this quote says it all. It really epitomizes why I will not spend another dime this year on the Kansas City Royals. The specific words that really bother me are "the success that Allard Baird had." What success would that be, Dayton? You mean the one year where we finished over .500 in his seven years as GM? Or do you mean the 381-576 record we amassed in his time in Kansas City? Or perhaps it is the three 100-loss seasons.

What kind of crazy person would call any of the Allard Baird era a success? None other than the current GM of the Royals, who just got a 4 year contract extension from the team.

But it's not all the losing that has pushed me into boycotting my favorite team. It's much more. It's a philosophy. It's the teams refusal to pay attention to advanced stats, even though all of the winning teams in the league have embraced them. It's the refusal to even pay attention to the normal life cycle of a player's career based on years of data. It's the constant signing and trading for guys who can't take a ball. It's the constant pickups of lazy players who are universally hated by their teammates (Jose Guillen, anyone?). It's the years botched draft picks. It's the terrible defense and base running mistakes. And, most of all, it's the refusal of ownership to acknowledge that anything is wrong.


My boycott actually officially began on July 10th, 2009. I had been considering this boycott for about a month and a half at the time, but that's the day the Royals pushed me over the edge. On that day, the Royals traded for Yuniesky Betancourt. This is the point where anyone who knows anything about baseball in Kansas City collectively threw their hands in the air. According to the numbers, Betancourt is not just bad, he's the worst every day shortstop in baseball. Both offensively and defensively. But for some reason, the Royals

I think Joe Posnanski put it best in his blog post two days later:

"Either the Royals are right or the numbers (as I look at them here) are right. For years now, Kansas City fans have been stuck rooting for the Royals to beat the numbers. And, for years now, the numbers have been kicking the Royals butts."

Joe is exactly right. The numbers have been kicking the Royals butts for years. If Betancourt were an isolated incident, I would be ok with that. Every team makes a bad acquisition. But this was just most recent example of a series of blunders and missteps over the past 15 years. Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, and Kyle Farnsworth are just the recent examples. But you can go back to Juan Gonzalez, Neifi Perez, and Octavio Dotel are examples that show this has been going on for a long time. Basically as long as I can remember.


This is all so rough for me in part because of my age. I'm currently 25 and was raised in Kansas City. The last time the Royals played a postseason game was October 27, 1985--six days shy of my 2nd birthday. I literally do not remember seeing a Royals playoff game. But it still wasn't always this bad when I was young. I do remember some of the early 90's, the last days of George Brett. The Royals actually had a competitive team in 1994, the year of the strike. But that's the last thing close to a contending team I have seen (strong Aprils in 2003 and 2009 don't count).

But it wasn't until recently that I got pushed over the edge into complete boycott. It's the only thing I can think to do. I used to just joke with my friends about how bad the team was. I'd try to take it lightly, cause it's "only a game". But when a lot of my good friends are Cardinal fans, it's hard not to recognize how a good organization can be run. And that just makes it more obvious how bad of an organization the Royals currently are. This makes the Dayton Moore 4-year contract extension more baffling. I can't for the life of me figure out what he has done to warrant this extension. The Royals magic number to be officially eliminated from the playoffs is already down to 13, and it's not even September 1st. I just don't understand what they are doing. That's why I decided to start talking about my boycott on this blog. I'm hoping maybe someone else out there who feels my pain will join me.

I do this out of love for the team. Strange, right? Let me explain. I've thought about this a lot, and the only metaphor I can come up with is having a friend who is an alcoholic. That person is still your friend, and you want the best for them. However, you would be a bad friend to take them out to a bar to get drunk. Then, you would just be enabling them to continue on that same path of self-destruction. Instead, you would try to help your friend go down another path.

OK, stay with me. The Royals are clearly engaging in behavior that is destructive to their chances of winning. By giving them any of my money, I am enabling them to continue on this path. In fact, giving them money is encouraging them to do so. David Glass, the owner, is the former Wal-Mart CEO. He has been in the Royals for profit (his right) all along. So the only way to make a point to Glass is to hit him in the pocket book. Clearly my small boycott won't make a dent. But it's a start. I estimate the Royals have missed out on my money for about 5 to 7 games since the boycott start. I went to 5 this year before the boycott started.

So that's a little of the background of why I am doing this. The blog serves a couple purposes. One is for me to vent my frustrations. Also, I'd like to see who else out there is as frustrated as I am. So over the the next few weeks, I will be writing more in depth on the topics I have talked about on this first post. Tomorrow, I will go into the details what my whole boycott entails.